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Tuesday, June 9, 2015

So Who Really Won the Mexico 2015 Elections? 06/10: Update On Reactions To Low Voter Turnout In Baja California Including Zeta Points Out More Problemas with Governance and States That the CJNG Has Settled in Our Region

Although officially the United States sent a warm congratulatory message to the Mexican authorities on the completion and wins of the 2015 elections, to many gringos the results seemed somewhat of an enigma.


 Despite the most recent Washington Post article featured in Aristegui Noticias (link within article) which describes from witness accounts that at least eleven of the forty two men killed by the Federal Police at Ecuandero (also known as Tanhuato), Michoacan having been castrated, fingers cut off, teeth knocked out and eyes missing - all indications which would at least hint of another case of extrajudicial killings and torture by the Federal florces; in the minds of millions the unresolved case of Ayotzinapa; the opinions of people such as Eduardo Solorzano that the Mexican people are enabling a deceitful system by electing officials; the overall increasing violence throughout Mexico; the exposed lucrative contracts of those who served in the Camara de Diputados from 2005-2010 - the 48% nationwide turnout seemed puzzling and a bit high considering the conditions in Mexico.




El Bronco !!



However as far as the independent candidates and the overall results of the election, the intelligentsia sees it in a different light than the perplexed gringos.   These results represent to most of them a "discontent with those in power."  Apparently, the Mexican people have been reading and listening to John Ackerman who recently urged them not to be overcome by discouragement or despair and reminded them that profound political changes always take time - so get out there and vote in his "Voto de Protesta" essay. Jenaro Villamil broke the numbers down with 95% of the votes counted which when compared to the 2009 election returns, the PRI registered the greatest decline in percentage and number of votes; compared to 2009, they lost 2.3 million voters.  More of those stats and the different political parties here.  Perhaps the U.S. government should have sent that congratulatory message to the Mexican people ?

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Locally we did have executions over the election weekend - which was unusual because normally the perpetrators lay low during election time ( as far as actual executions) knowing that the authorities are out and about (I'll come back to those). So far, not many explanations to the low voter turnout (30%) in Baja California.  And, the  overall opinion of Mexican people I have spoken to regarding the Jornaleros acceptance of the settlement offered by the government  instead of fighting on for "Equal Pay for Equal Work" was that there might have been concern over the Jornaleros and their families safety.


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06/10:   Here are just some of the reactions and explanations for the low voter turnout in Baja California:


 - Frontera reported that analysts are saying that social unrest and lack of credibility of the existing political parties are the contributing factors to the low (29.6 %) voter turnout in Baja California.  Additionally, Victor Espinoza adds the large number of immigrants in the area trying to make ends meet are simply not interested in politics.  He also feels that the young people are continuing a trend of non involvement because they feel the political arena basically shuts them out.


As far as the null vote which was at 7% ( a two point lead over the nationwide null vote of 5 %), Espinoza believes that within the population of BC there is an entire sector who are at odds with all of the parties and simply abstain from voting altogether along with another sector who do actually come out to vote (this would be the 7%) but use the ballot as a protest measure against all the parties.


Gustavo Fernandez de Leon interprets the low voter turnout (and the PAN victory) as a punishment vote against the PRI for fiscal damages - although he doesn't actually say it, we assume he means the dreaded IVA.


Juan Manuel Hernandez Niebla who worked tirelessly along with Gustavo Fernandez de Leon to have the IVA repealed in Baja California last year and  then pressed for better communication between the authorities and the business community regarding security matters believes the low voter turnout was a reflection of the disillusionment the population has with all three levels of government.  He believes the people are tired of the status quo and angry that basically nothing is happening for the good of the State or the City of Tijuana.  Both men want to see more involvement of young people within the process:

Frontera

Abstencionismo de BC es primero a nivel nacional


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More problemas....or "...Shame on your greed, shame on your wicked schemes...."
(B. Dylan)


Although the following essay did not state exactly that these were the reasons for low voter turnout, surely it was a reflection of what many people are thinking, how they are feeling and potentially could have had an impact on low voter turnout.  If nothing else it is the piece de resistance and final word on the subject.


Briefly, Zeta notes that Baja California has been rife with demonstrations over social conflict including the teachers, against the insecurity and economic situation (all of which have aggravated the situation on the border); experiencing wave(s) of violence between the drug gangs and organized crime - including THE SETTLEMENT IN THE REGION OF THE CARTEL JALISCO NUEVA GENERACION (CJNG).


According to Zeta between the five Municipalities and the State there is lack of communication and coordination regarding security and none of the leaders of the Municipalities or the Governor have been able to deal with these problems in an effectual way by at least instilling confidence within the population to alleviate the stress and unease these constant negative influences have on society in general.


At the top level, Zeta labels Governor Kiko as insensitive and lacking in leadership as far as handling the San Quintin problems; that he seems more concerned with the construction of his mansion (s) and more eager to rub shoulders with Pena Nieto and is admonished for his record of absenteeism.  Regarding the PRI - well meet the new boss, same as the old boss.



Within the government of Baja California Zeta believes there is lack of action and decision making  and  lack of respect towards the actual institutions. Citing the recent removal of the Director of Security during the wave of high impact criminality in the city is used as just one example of the inability of government to work in a cohesive fashion marked by political infighting. The inability for government to work in a cohesive fashion marked by political infighting according to Zeta affects the the operational order of both government and security. Here is the entire article:

Zeta

Sin respeto a las instituciones



Well don't feel too bad guys, Americans are also facing these same type of problems; in our household we are seriously reconsidering to vote at all in the next Presidential election which will be a record. What are the choices ?  The Bush Crime Family and their sycophants or the Clinton Crime Family and their sycophants ?


It's a mess. I'll be back, executions continue - gosh, no one said anything about the environment.



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At any rate, Proceso did a excellent review of Bob Dylan's Shadows In The Night album but I didn't think any of the songs would fit into these election results which the experts are calling  a "discontent with those in power,"  but I think I'm hearing some thunder out there....
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